Post by Andrei Tchentchik on Apr 9, 2020 15:00:46 GMT 2
(.#B.033).- Is the North Korean nuclear threat credible?
Is the North Korean nuclear threat credible?
by AFP on August 10, 2017
Archives
Photo released by the official North Korean agency KCNA showing North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspecting the Hwasong-14 missile, tested on July 4, 2017 by Pyongyang. (KCNA VIA KNS / AFP/STR)
US military intelligence is now convinced: North Korea has succeeded in miniaturizing the atomic weapon to embark on a missile - including intercontinental - capable of threatening the United States, revealed the Washington Post on Tuesday .
The country has succeeded in this technological feat faster than expected, but experts say it has obstacles to overcome before becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, capable of striking anywhere, anytime, at a specific location.
- Where is Pyongyang's nuclear capacity?
North Korea conducted five nuclear tests, the last of which was on September 9, 2016. The bomb was about the size of that launched on Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, or about 20 to 30 kilotonnes.
Pyongyang then announced that it was this type of device that he intended to miniaturize and "standardize" to embark on his ballistic missiles.
The country has fired numerous missiles, including two successful intercontinental missile launches, which experts estimate have the capacity to reach the west and east coasts of the United States with a range of about 10,000. kilometers.
- Is the danger immediate?
Miniaturizing the nuclear payload and building a missile with sufficient range and precision are just two parts of a complex equation. The head must survive a flight at 25,000 km / h to propel it into space and, above all, it must resist a return to the atmosphere where friction subjects it to extremely high temperatures and vibrations.
However, according to Michael Elleman, of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, the re-entry vehicle crumbled during the test of an intercontinental missile on July 28, 2017.
With a live fire, the charge would likely have been destroyed before reaching its target.
It is nevertheless possible that the current warheads are robust enough to withstand a missile of shorter range.
Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear expert at Stanford University, estimates that it may take another five years for North Korea to have a resilient re-entry vehicle.
"I don't think they have enough missile or nuclear test experience to be able to operate a nuclear warhead small enough, light and robust enough to survive an intercontinental ballistic missile fire," said he explained to AFP.
- What other obstacles?
Hecker, who has visited North Korea several times to assess his nuclear program, believes that Pyongyang's nuclear military program is severely hampered by its low stocks of uranium and especially plutonium, the material of choice for a weapon intended for an intercontinental missile.
According to him, North Korea has uranium and plutonium to make 20 to 25 bombs.
This is far less than the 60 nuclear weapons that Pyongyang would have, according to US military intelligence, quoted by the Washington Post on Tuesday.
Pyongyang threatens to fire four missiles at Guam, Washington warns Kim Jong-Un
The North Korean regime confirmed on Thursday that it wanted to fire four missiles at the American island of Guam, in the Pacific, saying that only force works with US President Donald Trump, "a guy who has lost his mind."
After promising Kim Jong-Un's regime "fire and anger" on Tuesday, Donald Trump showed up on Wednesday with a simple tweet, even more threatening, saying that the American nuclear arsenal was "stronger and more powerful ”than ever.
If he said he hoped not to have to use the devastating weapon, his words mark a new level, as the international community seeks ways to curb the development of North Korean ballistic and nuclear programs.
The tone contrasted sharply with that of his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. From the American territory of Guam, during a long-planned stopover, he insisted on Wednesday that in his eyes there was "no imminent threat".
Hours earlier Pyongyang had threatened to fire missiles at this small Pacific island of strategic importance to the United States.
"I think Americans can sleep peacefully and not worry about the rhetoric of the past few days," added Tillerson, emphasizing the intense diplomatic negotiations underway.
‘’Meanwhile, Pentagon chief Jim Mattis called on Pyongyang to stop its nuclear arms race, warning of decisions that would lead to "the end of his regime and the destruction of his people."
"The actions of the DPRK regime (North Korea, editor's note) will be far surpassed by ours each time and it would lose any arms race or conflict it would spark," insisted the former Marine general, stressing the growing isolation of Pyongyang.’’
Reacting to President Trump's verbal escalation, the North Korean official agency KCNA said on Thursday morning that "sensible dialogue is not possible with such a guy who has lost his mind and only absolute force works with him "
According to KCNA, the North Korean military will have completed its plans for an attack on Guam in mid-August (2017). The plans, which include the firing of four missiles which will fly over Japan, will be presented for approval to Kim Jong-Un and will constitute a "crucial warning in the United States," the agency said.
And the agency said that these four missiles "will fly 17 minutes and 45 seconds over a distance of 3.356.7 km, and will crash into the sea 30 or 40 km from Guam".
This remote island of some 550 km2 is a key outpost for US forces on the Asian route, home to 162,000 people. About 6,000 soldiers are deployed there and it has above all an air base capable of accommodating American heavy bombers from the B-52 to the B-2 via the B-1.
Calm reigned in Guam where the reassuring authorities invited locals and tourists to "relax and enjoy paradise".
The Japanese government, meanwhile, warned on Thursday that it could "never tolerate provocations" from North Korea after the Pyongyang regime threatened to fire missiles at the Pacific island of Guam.
"We strongly call on North Korea to take the international community's repeated warnings seriously, to comply with UN resolutions and to refrain from further provocations," said government spokesman Yoshihide Suga. .
On the international scene, several countries have expressed their concerns about the bellicose tone adopted by the tenant of the White House. Germany called on all parties to "exercise restraint". China, the only true ally of the North Korean regime, urged to avoid "words and actions" that could increase tension on the peninsula.
Asked about the succession of discordant notes for 24 hours, State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert said the United States was speaking "with one voice." "And besides, the world speaks with one voice," she added, referring to the UN Security Council's vote on new sanctions against North Korea.
The reclusive country is now equipped with nuclear weapons capable of being embarked on ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), according to the conclusions of a confidential report completed in July (2017) by the American agency of military intelligence, the DIA.
F I N .
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Is the North Korean nuclear threat credible?
by AFP on August 10, 2017
Archives
Photo released by the official North Korean agency KCNA showing North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspecting the Hwasong-14 missile, tested on July 4, 2017 by Pyongyang. (KCNA VIA KNS / AFP/STR)
US military intelligence is now convinced: North Korea has succeeded in miniaturizing the atomic weapon to embark on a missile - including intercontinental - capable of threatening the United States, revealed the Washington Post on Tuesday .
The country has succeeded in this technological feat faster than expected, but experts say it has obstacles to overcome before becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, capable of striking anywhere, anytime, at a specific location.
- Where is Pyongyang's nuclear capacity?
North Korea conducted five nuclear tests, the last of which was on September 9, 2016. The bomb was about the size of that launched on Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, or about 20 to 30 kilotonnes.
Pyongyang then announced that it was this type of device that he intended to miniaturize and "standardize" to embark on his ballistic missiles.
The country has fired numerous missiles, including two successful intercontinental missile launches, which experts estimate have the capacity to reach the west and east coasts of the United States with a range of about 10,000. kilometers.
- Is the danger immediate?
Miniaturizing the nuclear payload and building a missile with sufficient range and precision are just two parts of a complex equation. The head must survive a flight at 25,000 km / h to propel it into space and, above all, it must resist a return to the atmosphere where friction subjects it to extremely high temperatures and vibrations.
However, according to Michael Elleman, of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, the re-entry vehicle crumbled during the test of an intercontinental missile on July 28, 2017.
With a live fire, the charge would likely have been destroyed before reaching its target.
It is nevertheless possible that the current warheads are robust enough to withstand a missile of shorter range.
Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear expert at Stanford University, estimates that it may take another five years for North Korea to have a resilient re-entry vehicle.
"I don't think they have enough missile or nuclear test experience to be able to operate a nuclear warhead small enough, light and robust enough to survive an intercontinental ballistic missile fire," said he explained to AFP.
- What other obstacles?
Hecker, who has visited North Korea several times to assess his nuclear program, believes that Pyongyang's nuclear military program is severely hampered by its low stocks of uranium and especially plutonium, the material of choice for a weapon intended for an intercontinental missile.
According to him, North Korea has uranium and plutonium to make 20 to 25 bombs.
This is far less than the 60 nuclear weapons that Pyongyang would have, according to US military intelligence, quoted by the Washington Post on Tuesday.
Pyongyang threatens to fire four missiles at Guam, Washington warns Kim Jong-Un
The North Korean regime confirmed on Thursday that it wanted to fire four missiles at the American island of Guam, in the Pacific, saying that only force works with US President Donald Trump, "a guy who has lost his mind."
After promising Kim Jong-Un's regime "fire and anger" on Tuesday, Donald Trump showed up on Wednesday with a simple tweet, even more threatening, saying that the American nuclear arsenal was "stronger and more powerful ”than ever.
If he said he hoped not to have to use the devastating weapon, his words mark a new level, as the international community seeks ways to curb the development of North Korean ballistic and nuclear programs.
The tone contrasted sharply with that of his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. From the American territory of Guam, during a long-planned stopover, he insisted on Wednesday that in his eyes there was "no imminent threat".
Hours earlier Pyongyang had threatened to fire missiles at this small Pacific island of strategic importance to the United States.
"I think Americans can sleep peacefully and not worry about the rhetoric of the past few days," added Tillerson, emphasizing the intense diplomatic negotiations underway.
‘’Meanwhile, Pentagon chief Jim Mattis called on Pyongyang to stop its nuclear arms race, warning of decisions that would lead to "the end of his regime and the destruction of his people."
"The actions of the DPRK regime (North Korea, editor's note) will be far surpassed by ours each time and it would lose any arms race or conflict it would spark," insisted the former Marine general, stressing the growing isolation of Pyongyang.’’
Reacting to President Trump's verbal escalation, the North Korean official agency KCNA said on Thursday morning that "sensible dialogue is not possible with such a guy who has lost his mind and only absolute force works with him "
According to KCNA, the North Korean military will have completed its plans for an attack on Guam in mid-August (2017). The plans, which include the firing of four missiles which will fly over Japan, will be presented for approval to Kim Jong-Un and will constitute a "crucial warning in the United States," the agency said.
And the agency said that these four missiles "will fly 17 minutes and 45 seconds over a distance of 3.356.7 km, and will crash into the sea 30 or 40 km from Guam".
This remote island of some 550 km2 is a key outpost for US forces on the Asian route, home to 162,000 people. About 6,000 soldiers are deployed there and it has above all an air base capable of accommodating American heavy bombers from the B-52 to the B-2 via the B-1.
Calm reigned in Guam where the reassuring authorities invited locals and tourists to "relax and enjoy paradise".
The Japanese government, meanwhile, warned on Thursday that it could "never tolerate provocations" from North Korea after the Pyongyang regime threatened to fire missiles at the Pacific island of Guam.
"We strongly call on North Korea to take the international community's repeated warnings seriously, to comply with UN resolutions and to refrain from further provocations," said government spokesman Yoshihide Suga. .
On the international scene, several countries have expressed their concerns about the bellicose tone adopted by the tenant of the White House. Germany called on all parties to "exercise restraint". China, the only true ally of the North Korean regime, urged to avoid "words and actions" that could increase tension on the peninsula.
Asked about the succession of discordant notes for 24 hours, State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert said the United States was speaking "with one voice." "And besides, the world speaks with one voice," she added, referring to the UN Security Council's vote on new sanctions against North Korea.
The reclusive country is now equipped with nuclear weapons capable of being embarked on ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), according to the conclusions of a confidential report completed in July (2017) by the American agency of military intelligence, the DIA.
F I N .
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