Post by Andrei Tchentchik on Jul 31, 2020 13:08:36 GMT 2
(.#585).- Hypothesis of the zoo, ET's exist and communicate with Earthlings.
Hypothesis of the zoo, ET's exist and communicate with Earthlings.
The zoo hypothesis is a theoretical explanation, advanced in 1973 by astronomer John A. Ball, on premises posed by Constantin Tsiolkovsky in 1934, in response to the Fermi paradox which concerns the apparent lack of contact and evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial life. According to this hypothesis, the extraterrestrials would exist and would be technologically advanced enough to be able to communicate with the Terrans. They would observe Earth and humanity from a distance, without trying to interact, much like researchers observing primitive animals from a distance, avoiding contact so as not to disturb them.
A development of this hypothesis is that of the "galactic quarantine" where extraterrestrial civilizations, for ethical, scientific or cultural reasons, would wait, before contacting humanity, for it to reach a certain technological level and avoid self-destruction. Other hypotheses have been developed from it by scientists, sometimes becoming philosophical subjects. Critics and scientists point out that there is no way to verify them.
The hypotheses of the zoo and the galactic quarantine have also been taken up in ufology and in works of science fiction.
One response to the Fermi paradox is the hypothesis that the Earth would be, for possible extraterrestrial civilizations, a protected nature reserve or that it would be placed in quarantine (The Blue Ball: photo of the Earth taken by the crew of Apollo 17).
A development of this hypothesis is that of the "galactic quarantine" where extraterrestrial civilizations, for ethical, scientific or cultural reasons, would wait, before contacting humanity, for it to reach a certain technological level and avoid self-destruction. Other hypotheses have been developed from it by scientists, sometimes becoming philosophical subjects. Critics and scientists point out that there is no way to verify them.
The hypotheses of the zoo and the galactic quarantine have also been taken up in ufology and in works of science fiction.
Precursors
Constantin Tsiolkovski, father of modern astronautics, has already mentioned the hypothesis of galactic quarantine.
Russian scientist Constantin Tsiolkovsky, father and theorist of modern astronautics, belatedly asks philosophical questions, including that of the presence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence of their existence, thus anticipating the Fermi paradox. Using similar reasoning to what will later be Drake's equation, he comes to the conclusion that life is spread over many planets around other stars and that the colonization of space by alien species, just like by humanity, is inevitable.
He suggested in 1934, in his essay There are also Planets Around Other Suns (which can be translated as: "There are also planets around other suns"), that extraterrestrial civilizations wiser and older than ours certainly exist, but that they refuse to interfere with our history so as not to push us to destruction. A meeting can take place when humanity is more technologically and spiritually advanced. Premature contact could cause an asymmetric war between the still bellicose human species and a much more evolved alien species. Tsiolkovsky also evokes the difference in intelligence that would prevent all communication: "Can we have rational relations with dogs or donkeys? Likewise, higher beings would not be able to communicate with us at the moment ”.
He also invokes another reason why there would be an advantage for these superior alien species to let us evolve on our own: despite humanity's doubts about itself, these species would know that humanity could bring "a new and wonderful current of life which will renew and complete their already perfect lives ”.
For physicist Stephen Webb, Tsiolkovsky's hypotheses “contain the seeds of the zoo hypothesis”.
In an article titled Our Lonely Planet, which appeared in Astounding Stories magazine in 1958, science fiction author Isaac Asimov takes up the idea that Earth could be a nature reserve.
Theorized in 1973 by the American radio astronomer John A. Ball in the journal Icarus, the zoo's hypothesis postulates that extraterrestrials do indeed exist and that they are interested in our species. They could do this by observing us from a distance, from the asteroid belt or the far reaches of the Solar System, in the same way that we are interested in animals in nature reserves, out of scientific curiosity while trying to interact as little as possible with them. them. The reason for the lack of contact between these very advanced civilizations (ubiquitous in the universe according to Ball) and humanity is that the former do not want to be detected and have the technological means to avoid it in order to let human civilization develop without outside influence.
This hypothesis is directly intended, according to Ball, to solve the Fermi paradox. It takes up the idea that given the longevity of the universe, extraterrestrial civilizations must be numerous and must have spread throughout the entire galaxy. However, the absence of contact is the strongest argument according to him in favor of the zoo hypothesis, of which there are several variants depending on the factors taken into consideration.
For Michela Massimila, professor of philosophy of science at the University of Edinburgh, it is difficult to prove that the cosmic zoo hypothesis is false, but above all it makes us “very atypical forms of life and therefore is counter-anthropic ”.
Reviews
Scientists criticize the zoo's hypothesis that no radio broadcasts proving extraterrestrial surveillance have been detected (Very Large Array radio telescope in the United States).
Ball says his theory is neither demonstrable nor verifiable "because they [aliens] don't want to be discovered and they have the technological capacity to make sure."
For cosmologist John D. Barrow and physicist Frank Tipler, the zoo hypothesis is unlikely. They believe that if there were many advanced extraterrestrial civilizations capable of coming into contact with humanity as the Drake equation might suggest, it is not certain that all of them would adhere to this rule of no. -interference. Moreover, even if this rule were respected on the scale of a civilization, the possibility would exist that an individual or a group of extraterrestrial individuals violate it knowingly or accidentally. They nevertheless propose, to verify Ball's hypothesis, to detect any radio emissions between the extraterrestrial watchmen present in our solar system and their star of origin, as envisaged by the scientists Kuiper and Morris, or to detect the infrared radiation of the construction of self-replicating probes, as imagined by Freeman Dyson from the work of John von Neumann. For Barrow and Tipler, no extraterrestrial police system could absolutely prevent all contact.
According to Stephen Webb, this scenario and its alternative developments suffer from several flaws. They are not testable because, according to this hypothesis, whatever humanity does to detect extraterrestrials, it will prove to be impossible because they do not want to be. For Webb the same explanation could be used for fairies and is therefore very poor scientifically. This hypothesis is also anthropocentric, and it is impossible to know why an alien species would have, like humans, an interest in less advanced species. Likewise this hypothesis fails to explain why the Earth was not colonized long before the appearance of a complex life form. He echoes the criticisms of Barrow and Tipler that it would suffice for one civilization to break the embargo and that all civilizations of all ages are unlikely to have the same doctrine. Finally, the zoo hypothesis does not explain why telescopes or radio telescopes do not observe any sign of intelligent life in the galaxy.
For astrophysicist Michael H. Hart, the zoo hypothesis, like most responses to the Fermi paradox, is a sociological explanation because "no scientific procedure has been suggested to test the validity of the zoo hypothesis [ …] And therefore to accept one of these explanations would be to abandon our scientific approach to the question ”.
Louis Scheffer, professor of bioinformatics and neurosciences at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute has responded to criticisms that point to the impossibility of the fact that millions or billions of extraterrestrial civilizations all want to unanimously uphold the agreement that Earth must not be visited, nor colonized. He envisioned a civilization that would have invented teleportation by transferring information from consciousness, which eliminated the need to create gigantic ships or mining colonies to build them, replacing them with travel much faster than the speed of the earth. light. Teleportation would provide such an advantage that other civilizations would prefer to abandon their colonization plans to join a "galactic teleportation travel club" that would allow the emergence of a common galactic culture opposed to the colonization of Earth. Arthur C. Clarke, in his novel 3001: The Final Odyssey, called Scheffer's article "surely the most stimulating for the imagination that the dismal Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society has published in its entire existence!" "
Developments
The catastrophic impact of a technologically evolved civilization on a less evolved civilization, such as that caused by the European colonization of the Americas, is one of the arguments of scientists who support the zoo hypothesis (Siege of Tenochtitlan as seen by the Aztecs, 1521 ).
For astrophysicist Peter Ulmschneider, this hypothesis makes sense when we see, in human history, the catastrophic impact of a technologically advanced civilization on a less advanced civilization, as was the case with the Amerindians following the arrival of Christopher Columbus or Hernán Cortés. For him, an extraterrestrial civilization much more evolved and ancient than ours would not take such a risk and would stay away, allowing humanity to pursue an original development, without foreign cultural or technological influence. Cosmologist Stephen Hawking thought an encounter with an alien civilization "would be a disaster. The aliens would probably be much further ahead than us. The story of evolved races meeting more primitive people on this planet is not a very happy one, and they were of the same species. I think we should keep a low profile. "
Radio astronomer Nikolai Kardachev, author of the Kardachev Scale Theory, believes it is very likely that a supercivilization has already detected and observed mankind through cosmic-dimensional telescopes. He talks about it in an article published in 1997, entitled Radioastron - a Radio Telescope Much Greater than the Earth. In this super-civilization, the science of "cosmic ethnography" must be highly developed. However, the fact that no contact has been established so far could be explained by the ethical considerations of these civilizations. Based on this principle, Kardashev sees only two possible evolutionary scenarios for a supercivilization: natural evolution and evolution following contacts with other extraterrestrial civilizations. He considers more probable the scenario based on the contact of two highly developed technologically and culturally; this scenario, which he calls "Urbanization Hypothesis", results in regrouping and unifying several civilizations within a few compact regions of the Universe.
Galactic quarantine
A key argument for the zoo's hypothesis would be that premature contact could “unintelligently” reduce the total diversity of civilizations (over 1,000 galaxies in a single photo, Hubble Ultra Deep Field).
According to Alex Wissner-Gross, a physicist at Harvard University, the zoo's hypothesis establishes, first, that a large number of extraterrestrial cultures exist and, second, that they have great respect for independent development and evolution and natural. If intelligence is a physical process that tends to maximize the diversity of futures of a system, a fundamental argument for the zoo hypothesis would be that premature contact could "unintelligently" reduce the diversity of paths that the universe could borrow.
For Steven Soter, a scientist in the Department of Astrophysics at the American Museum of Natural History, these ideas are arguably more plausible if there is a relatively universal legal culture or policy shared by this plurality of extraterrestrial civilizations. It would be this shared ethic that would suppose to isolate civilizations of a level of development comparable to that of the Earth. In a universe without hegemonic power, solitary civilizations, with principles different from this one, could come into contact. It is therefore necessary to make the assumption of a universe populated by civilizations using such rules.
However, like John D. Barrow and Frank Tipler, Ian Crawford, professor of planetary science and astrobiology, considers that, if there are multiple extraterrestrial cultures, the theory could stumble on the concept of uniformity. It would suffice for a single extraterrestrial civilization to decide to act contrary to this imperative for the theory to be invalidated, and this probability increases with the number of civilizations. But the idea of a shared motivation would however become possible if all civilizations tended to evolve in a similar way with regard to the values and cultural norms of a contact, on the model of the convergent evolution on Earth, which independently evolved the eye on several occasions. Another explanation, due to Ronald N. Bracewell, astronomer member of the SETI program, would be that all civilizations follow in the footsteps of a particularly eminent civilization, the first civilization.
... or imposed by a first civilization
Several scientists have hypothesized that a first or powerful civilization in the Milky Way would have imposed quarantine (the Milky Way seen from Easter Island).
With the idea of a first pioneering civilization, the zoo hypothesis thus modified becomes a better answer to the Fermi paradox for Professor Thomas Hair of Florida Gulf Coast University. The time between the appearance of a first civilization in the Milky Way and the following civilizations could be gigantic. The Monte-Carlo method shows that the periods between the appearances of civilizations are the equivalent of geological epochs on Earth. The skills of a civilization with a lead of 10 million, 100 million or half a billion years are hardly imaginable as shown in the Kardachev scale.
According to Hair, even though this first great civilization is long gone, its legacy could survive in the form of a tradition or even with the help of an artificial life form, freed from the problem of death, entirely oriented towards this. goal. This civilization would not need to be the first to appear, but just the first to have spread its doctrine and control over much of the galaxy. If such a civilization had been hegemonic in the distant past, it could have created a taboo against predatory civilizations and in favor of non-interference, a taboo that would have been perpetuated among the civilizations that would have succeeded it.
If the oldest civilization still present in the Milky Way had a lead of, for example, a hundred million years over the following civilization, then it is possible to conceive that it could be in the singular position of controlling, observing, influencing or isolate the appearance of all the civilizations that follow it in its sphere of influence. This situation would be analogous to that of our Earthly civilization, where each individual is born into a pre-existing system of families, customs, traditions and laws established long before birth, over which they have little or no control.
Hypothesis of the forbidden
Several scientists, including Carl Sagan, have hypothesized a common extraterrestrial code of conduct, the Codex Galactica.
According to physicist Stephen Webb, the “interdict hypothesis” is a development of the zoo hypothesis which explains why the Earth, but also all the planets carrying life, would be prohibited from entering. In 1987, physicist Martyn J. Fogg explains that the Earth and its living species are made untouchable by extraterrestrial civilizations due to a galactic treaty. This hypothesis of the forbidden is based on the idea that, in all likelihood, the galaxy would already be colonized long before the formation of the Solar System. The galaxy would then have entered an era of power balance, which would explain that there is no contact tracing. Earth would thus be located within the area of influence of one of these galactic powers, member of a Galactic Club, an idea that Fogg borrows from Carl Sagan and William Newman, who also speak of a common code of conduct. , Codex Galactica. The Earth being a reserved domain of this power, no contact would be possible until humanity had acquired enough technology to join this galactic club. The reason for this prohibition would be that, in this era of equilibrium, the most important non-renewable resource for these civilizations would be knowledge, because they would no longer even need to colonize the planets as the writer had already mentioned. science fiction film Isaac Asimov. Webb sees a weakness in this hypothesis, however: cultural homogeneity is a myth, given the duration of interstellar travel, which is an obstacle to the building of vast civilizations.
Planetarium hypothesis
For science fiction writer and physicist Stephen Baxter, Fermi's paradox can be solved by means of a zoo-like hypothesis, the “planetarium” hypothesis. Earth would be caught in a powerful virtual reality simulation that obscures signs and evidence of the alien presence. Electromagnetic signals would conceal the signature of their presence, generating the equivalent of a planetarium on the scale of the entire Solar System. The idea was picked up in Robert A. Heinlein's new Universe, as well as in theaters in The Matrix and The Truman Show. For Stephen Webb, the hypothesis, which tends to be a modern solipsism, and which goes against Ockham's razor, is unrealistic, unless we admit that a very powerful civilization (of type III according to Kardachev) exists, and again this borders, according to him, paranoia, Baxter having stated this hypothesis as a possibility to be eliminated. Such devices would require the mastery of astroengineering. Anders Sandberg imagines, for his part, the “brains of Jupiter”, artificial brains, the size of Jupiter, with phenomenal computing power. These astroengineering projects would require the energy of a star to function.
Peer hypothesis
Another version of it is the peer hypothesis put forward by scientist and writer Paul Birch in 1990. It claims that highly evolved extraterrestrial civilizations capable of traveling from galaxy to galaxy. another, creating planets, stars or black holes, could also manipulate space-time and create artificial universes like creating a zoo. Birch's hypothesis is that we could live in such a universe created by extraterrestrials who would be the equivalent of gods from a theological point of view, who would have created many civilizations, including our own in this universe which would be similar to theirs and even in their image. Their technological level would be similar, humanity being around the average. These civilizations would therefore all be peers (that is to say, according to the definition, of the same condition and of the same rank) and none would yet have the possibility of making contact with another, but as and when their evolution, contacts would multiply, which could lead to fruitful exchanges or interstellar wars. The reason for this creation by an almost divine civilization could be, according to Birch, that they desire a universe "full of events and interesting", "the story being the most entertaining when there are many interactions of groups with capacities and close interests ”. Other causes could also exist such as intellectual experience or simple entertainment.
For David Lamb, professor of philosophy and bioethics at the University of Birmingham, although this theory sounds like "far-fetched" science fiction, it is not incompatible with the theories of the Big Bang and the multiverse.
Theory in ufology
Ufologists who believe that UFOs are flying objects piloted by aliens support the zoo's hypothesis, believing it to support their theory. However, this hypothesis says on the contrary that no manifestation of extraterrestrial visitors should be perceived by Terrans, which would imply that, if UFOs are indeed extraterrestrial vessels, then it would be false. The ufologist James Deardorff proposes the scenario of an imperfect embargo, in which certain extraterrestrials, not respecting the prohibition of access striking the Earth, would nevertheless go to it. For Stephen Webb, this explanation is so unscientific that it does not even deserve the qualifier of scenario.
For Budd Hopkins, an American ufologist who has particularly worked on accounts of abduction by extraterrestrials, the zoo hypothesis involves surveillance by extraterrestrials living within humanity.
Theory in fiction
Olaf Stapledon's sci-fi novel Creator of Stars (1937) describes an alien race that hides its existence from “pre-utopian primitives” so that they do not lose their independent spirit. It is only when they reach the level of utopian space travelers and world peace that the evolved race makes contact to help them develop.
Writer Arthur C. Clarke said he was heavily influenced by Stapledon. In his science fiction short story The Sentinel (1948), geologists discover on the Moon an alien artefact responsible for signaling to an unknown species that intelligent life has developed on Earth. The short story served as the basis for 2001, A Space Odyssey, a film released in 1968 and presenting the beginnings of John A. Ball's theory. Despite a notable difference - the film features a contact that took place in prehistoric times to make humanity evolve - a device, the "second monolith", makes it possible to warn an extraterrestrial civilization that the human species has acquired a level technological sufficient to reach the Moon and thus establish a first contact.
In the Star Trek universe, galactic quarantine is governed by the United Federation of Planets via the Prime Directive which states "No identification of oneself or the mission." No interference with the social development of said planet. No reference to space or that there are other worlds and other civilizations ”. The concept is defined in March 1968 in the episode Bread and games.
In the animated series Once Upon a Time ... Space (1981), galactic quarantine is applied to less evolved civilizations by the "Omega Confederation", which brings together Earthlings and extraterrestrials. At the end of the series, Omega and the other civilizations learn that they themselves are the subject of some 40 from super-evolved species.
In the universe of the cycle of Culture, Iain M. Banks defines eleven levels of development, from the creation of tools (level 0) to “sublimation” (level 10), a kind of multidimensional Nirvana, including bronze age, industry, nuclear fission, the conquest of space, etc. One of the missions that the "Contact" section of Culture has for itself is to determine if civilizations are mature enough to be contacted. A rule is that we never provide a civilization with technologies that exceed by one unit its level of development. In the short story The Essence of Art, it is planet Earth that members of the Culture observe in order to decide if it is relevant to come into contact with it.
F I N .
Hypothesis of the zoo, ET's exist and communicate with Earthlings.
The zoo hypothesis is a theoretical explanation, advanced in 1973 by astronomer John A. Ball, on premises posed by Constantin Tsiolkovsky in 1934, in response to the Fermi paradox which concerns the apparent lack of contact and evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial life. According to this hypothesis, the extraterrestrials would exist and would be technologically advanced enough to be able to communicate with the Terrans. They would observe Earth and humanity from a distance, without trying to interact, much like researchers observing primitive animals from a distance, avoiding contact so as not to disturb them.
A development of this hypothesis is that of the "galactic quarantine" where extraterrestrial civilizations, for ethical, scientific or cultural reasons, would wait, before contacting humanity, for it to reach a certain technological level and avoid self-destruction. Other hypotheses have been developed from it by scientists, sometimes becoming philosophical subjects. Critics and scientists point out that there is no way to verify them.
The hypotheses of the zoo and the galactic quarantine have also been taken up in ufology and in works of science fiction.
One response to the Fermi paradox is the hypothesis that the Earth would be, for possible extraterrestrial civilizations, a protected nature reserve or that it would be placed in quarantine (The Blue Ball: photo of the Earth taken by the crew of Apollo 17).
A development of this hypothesis is that of the "galactic quarantine" where extraterrestrial civilizations, for ethical, scientific or cultural reasons, would wait, before contacting humanity, for it to reach a certain technological level and avoid self-destruction. Other hypotheses have been developed from it by scientists, sometimes becoming philosophical subjects. Critics and scientists point out that there is no way to verify them.
The hypotheses of the zoo and the galactic quarantine have also been taken up in ufology and in works of science fiction.
Precursors
Constantin Tsiolkovski, father of modern astronautics, has already mentioned the hypothesis of galactic quarantine.
Russian scientist Constantin Tsiolkovsky, father and theorist of modern astronautics, belatedly asks philosophical questions, including that of the presence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence of their existence, thus anticipating the Fermi paradox. Using similar reasoning to what will later be Drake's equation, he comes to the conclusion that life is spread over many planets around other stars and that the colonization of space by alien species, just like by humanity, is inevitable.
He suggested in 1934, in his essay There are also Planets Around Other Suns (which can be translated as: "There are also planets around other suns"), that extraterrestrial civilizations wiser and older than ours certainly exist, but that they refuse to interfere with our history so as not to push us to destruction. A meeting can take place when humanity is more technologically and spiritually advanced. Premature contact could cause an asymmetric war between the still bellicose human species and a much more evolved alien species. Tsiolkovsky also evokes the difference in intelligence that would prevent all communication: "Can we have rational relations with dogs or donkeys? Likewise, higher beings would not be able to communicate with us at the moment ”.
He also invokes another reason why there would be an advantage for these superior alien species to let us evolve on our own: despite humanity's doubts about itself, these species would know that humanity could bring "a new and wonderful current of life which will renew and complete their already perfect lives ”.
For physicist Stephen Webb, Tsiolkovsky's hypotheses “contain the seeds of the zoo hypothesis”.
In an article titled Our Lonely Planet, which appeared in Astounding Stories magazine in 1958, science fiction author Isaac Asimov takes up the idea that Earth could be a nature reserve.
Theorized in 1973 by the American radio astronomer John A. Ball in the journal Icarus, the zoo's hypothesis postulates that extraterrestrials do indeed exist and that they are interested in our species. They could do this by observing us from a distance, from the asteroid belt or the far reaches of the Solar System, in the same way that we are interested in animals in nature reserves, out of scientific curiosity while trying to interact as little as possible with them. them. The reason for the lack of contact between these very advanced civilizations (ubiquitous in the universe according to Ball) and humanity is that the former do not want to be detected and have the technological means to avoid it in order to let human civilization develop without outside influence.
This hypothesis is directly intended, according to Ball, to solve the Fermi paradox. It takes up the idea that given the longevity of the universe, extraterrestrial civilizations must be numerous and must have spread throughout the entire galaxy. However, the absence of contact is the strongest argument according to him in favor of the zoo hypothesis, of which there are several variants depending on the factors taken into consideration.
For Michela Massimila, professor of philosophy of science at the University of Edinburgh, it is difficult to prove that the cosmic zoo hypothesis is false, but above all it makes us “very atypical forms of life and therefore is counter-anthropic ”.
Reviews
Scientists criticize the zoo's hypothesis that no radio broadcasts proving extraterrestrial surveillance have been detected (Very Large Array radio telescope in the United States).
Ball says his theory is neither demonstrable nor verifiable "because they [aliens] don't want to be discovered and they have the technological capacity to make sure."
For cosmologist John D. Barrow and physicist Frank Tipler, the zoo hypothesis is unlikely. They believe that if there were many advanced extraterrestrial civilizations capable of coming into contact with humanity as the Drake equation might suggest, it is not certain that all of them would adhere to this rule of no. -interference. Moreover, even if this rule were respected on the scale of a civilization, the possibility would exist that an individual or a group of extraterrestrial individuals violate it knowingly or accidentally. They nevertheless propose, to verify Ball's hypothesis, to detect any radio emissions between the extraterrestrial watchmen present in our solar system and their star of origin, as envisaged by the scientists Kuiper and Morris, or to detect the infrared radiation of the construction of self-replicating probes, as imagined by Freeman Dyson from the work of John von Neumann. For Barrow and Tipler, no extraterrestrial police system could absolutely prevent all contact.
According to Stephen Webb, this scenario and its alternative developments suffer from several flaws. They are not testable because, according to this hypothesis, whatever humanity does to detect extraterrestrials, it will prove to be impossible because they do not want to be. For Webb the same explanation could be used for fairies and is therefore very poor scientifically. This hypothesis is also anthropocentric, and it is impossible to know why an alien species would have, like humans, an interest in less advanced species. Likewise this hypothesis fails to explain why the Earth was not colonized long before the appearance of a complex life form. He echoes the criticisms of Barrow and Tipler that it would suffice for one civilization to break the embargo and that all civilizations of all ages are unlikely to have the same doctrine. Finally, the zoo hypothesis does not explain why telescopes or radio telescopes do not observe any sign of intelligent life in the galaxy.
For astrophysicist Michael H. Hart, the zoo hypothesis, like most responses to the Fermi paradox, is a sociological explanation because "no scientific procedure has been suggested to test the validity of the zoo hypothesis [ …] And therefore to accept one of these explanations would be to abandon our scientific approach to the question ”.
Louis Scheffer, professor of bioinformatics and neurosciences at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute has responded to criticisms that point to the impossibility of the fact that millions or billions of extraterrestrial civilizations all want to unanimously uphold the agreement that Earth must not be visited, nor colonized. He envisioned a civilization that would have invented teleportation by transferring information from consciousness, which eliminated the need to create gigantic ships or mining colonies to build them, replacing them with travel much faster than the speed of the earth. light. Teleportation would provide such an advantage that other civilizations would prefer to abandon their colonization plans to join a "galactic teleportation travel club" that would allow the emergence of a common galactic culture opposed to the colonization of Earth. Arthur C. Clarke, in his novel 3001: The Final Odyssey, called Scheffer's article "surely the most stimulating for the imagination that the dismal Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society has published in its entire existence!" "
Developments
The catastrophic impact of a technologically evolved civilization on a less evolved civilization, such as that caused by the European colonization of the Americas, is one of the arguments of scientists who support the zoo hypothesis (Siege of Tenochtitlan as seen by the Aztecs, 1521 ).
For astrophysicist Peter Ulmschneider, this hypothesis makes sense when we see, in human history, the catastrophic impact of a technologically advanced civilization on a less advanced civilization, as was the case with the Amerindians following the arrival of Christopher Columbus or Hernán Cortés. For him, an extraterrestrial civilization much more evolved and ancient than ours would not take such a risk and would stay away, allowing humanity to pursue an original development, without foreign cultural or technological influence. Cosmologist Stephen Hawking thought an encounter with an alien civilization "would be a disaster. The aliens would probably be much further ahead than us. The story of evolved races meeting more primitive people on this planet is not a very happy one, and they were of the same species. I think we should keep a low profile. "
Radio astronomer Nikolai Kardachev, author of the Kardachev Scale Theory, believes it is very likely that a supercivilization has already detected and observed mankind through cosmic-dimensional telescopes. He talks about it in an article published in 1997, entitled Radioastron - a Radio Telescope Much Greater than the Earth. In this super-civilization, the science of "cosmic ethnography" must be highly developed. However, the fact that no contact has been established so far could be explained by the ethical considerations of these civilizations. Based on this principle, Kardashev sees only two possible evolutionary scenarios for a supercivilization: natural evolution and evolution following contacts with other extraterrestrial civilizations. He considers more probable the scenario based on the contact of two highly developed technologically and culturally; this scenario, which he calls "Urbanization Hypothesis", results in regrouping and unifying several civilizations within a few compact regions of the Universe.
Galactic quarantine
A key argument for the zoo's hypothesis would be that premature contact could “unintelligently” reduce the total diversity of civilizations (over 1,000 galaxies in a single photo, Hubble Ultra Deep Field).
According to Alex Wissner-Gross, a physicist at Harvard University, the zoo's hypothesis establishes, first, that a large number of extraterrestrial cultures exist and, second, that they have great respect for independent development and evolution and natural. If intelligence is a physical process that tends to maximize the diversity of futures of a system, a fundamental argument for the zoo hypothesis would be that premature contact could "unintelligently" reduce the diversity of paths that the universe could borrow.
For Steven Soter, a scientist in the Department of Astrophysics at the American Museum of Natural History, these ideas are arguably more plausible if there is a relatively universal legal culture or policy shared by this plurality of extraterrestrial civilizations. It would be this shared ethic that would suppose to isolate civilizations of a level of development comparable to that of the Earth. In a universe without hegemonic power, solitary civilizations, with principles different from this one, could come into contact. It is therefore necessary to make the assumption of a universe populated by civilizations using such rules.
However, like John D. Barrow and Frank Tipler, Ian Crawford, professor of planetary science and astrobiology, considers that, if there are multiple extraterrestrial cultures, the theory could stumble on the concept of uniformity. It would suffice for a single extraterrestrial civilization to decide to act contrary to this imperative for the theory to be invalidated, and this probability increases with the number of civilizations. But the idea of a shared motivation would however become possible if all civilizations tended to evolve in a similar way with regard to the values and cultural norms of a contact, on the model of the convergent evolution on Earth, which independently evolved the eye on several occasions. Another explanation, due to Ronald N. Bracewell, astronomer member of the SETI program, would be that all civilizations follow in the footsteps of a particularly eminent civilization, the first civilization.
... or imposed by a first civilization
Several scientists have hypothesized that a first or powerful civilization in the Milky Way would have imposed quarantine (the Milky Way seen from Easter Island).
With the idea of a first pioneering civilization, the zoo hypothesis thus modified becomes a better answer to the Fermi paradox for Professor Thomas Hair of Florida Gulf Coast University. The time between the appearance of a first civilization in the Milky Way and the following civilizations could be gigantic. The Monte-Carlo method shows that the periods between the appearances of civilizations are the equivalent of geological epochs on Earth. The skills of a civilization with a lead of 10 million, 100 million or half a billion years are hardly imaginable as shown in the Kardachev scale.
According to Hair, even though this first great civilization is long gone, its legacy could survive in the form of a tradition or even with the help of an artificial life form, freed from the problem of death, entirely oriented towards this. goal. This civilization would not need to be the first to appear, but just the first to have spread its doctrine and control over much of the galaxy. If such a civilization had been hegemonic in the distant past, it could have created a taboo against predatory civilizations and in favor of non-interference, a taboo that would have been perpetuated among the civilizations that would have succeeded it.
If the oldest civilization still present in the Milky Way had a lead of, for example, a hundred million years over the following civilization, then it is possible to conceive that it could be in the singular position of controlling, observing, influencing or isolate the appearance of all the civilizations that follow it in its sphere of influence. This situation would be analogous to that of our Earthly civilization, where each individual is born into a pre-existing system of families, customs, traditions and laws established long before birth, over which they have little or no control.
Hypothesis of the forbidden
Several scientists, including Carl Sagan, have hypothesized a common extraterrestrial code of conduct, the Codex Galactica.
According to physicist Stephen Webb, the “interdict hypothesis” is a development of the zoo hypothesis which explains why the Earth, but also all the planets carrying life, would be prohibited from entering. In 1987, physicist Martyn J. Fogg explains that the Earth and its living species are made untouchable by extraterrestrial civilizations due to a galactic treaty. This hypothesis of the forbidden is based on the idea that, in all likelihood, the galaxy would already be colonized long before the formation of the Solar System. The galaxy would then have entered an era of power balance, which would explain that there is no contact tracing. Earth would thus be located within the area of influence of one of these galactic powers, member of a Galactic Club, an idea that Fogg borrows from Carl Sagan and William Newman, who also speak of a common code of conduct. , Codex Galactica. The Earth being a reserved domain of this power, no contact would be possible until humanity had acquired enough technology to join this galactic club. The reason for this prohibition would be that, in this era of equilibrium, the most important non-renewable resource for these civilizations would be knowledge, because they would no longer even need to colonize the planets as the writer had already mentioned. science fiction film Isaac Asimov. Webb sees a weakness in this hypothesis, however: cultural homogeneity is a myth, given the duration of interstellar travel, which is an obstacle to the building of vast civilizations.
Planetarium hypothesis
For science fiction writer and physicist Stephen Baxter, Fermi's paradox can be solved by means of a zoo-like hypothesis, the “planetarium” hypothesis. Earth would be caught in a powerful virtual reality simulation that obscures signs and evidence of the alien presence. Electromagnetic signals would conceal the signature of their presence, generating the equivalent of a planetarium on the scale of the entire Solar System. The idea was picked up in Robert A. Heinlein's new Universe, as well as in theaters in The Matrix and The Truman Show. For Stephen Webb, the hypothesis, which tends to be a modern solipsism, and which goes against Ockham's razor, is unrealistic, unless we admit that a very powerful civilization (of type III according to Kardachev) exists, and again this borders, according to him, paranoia, Baxter having stated this hypothesis as a possibility to be eliminated. Such devices would require the mastery of astroengineering. Anders Sandberg imagines, for his part, the “brains of Jupiter”, artificial brains, the size of Jupiter, with phenomenal computing power. These astroengineering projects would require the energy of a star to function.
Peer hypothesis
Another version of it is the peer hypothesis put forward by scientist and writer Paul Birch in 1990. It claims that highly evolved extraterrestrial civilizations capable of traveling from galaxy to galaxy. another, creating planets, stars or black holes, could also manipulate space-time and create artificial universes like creating a zoo. Birch's hypothesis is that we could live in such a universe created by extraterrestrials who would be the equivalent of gods from a theological point of view, who would have created many civilizations, including our own in this universe which would be similar to theirs and even in their image. Their technological level would be similar, humanity being around the average. These civilizations would therefore all be peers (that is to say, according to the definition, of the same condition and of the same rank) and none would yet have the possibility of making contact with another, but as and when their evolution, contacts would multiply, which could lead to fruitful exchanges or interstellar wars. The reason for this creation by an almost divine civilization could be, according to Birch, that they desire a universe "full of events and interesting", "the story being the most entertaining when there are many interactions of groups with capacities and close interests ”. Other causes could also exist such as intellectual experience or simple entertainment.
For David Lamb, professor of philosophy and bioethics at the University of Birmingham, although this theory sounds like "far-fetched" science fiction, it is not incompatible with the theories of the Big Bang and the multiverse.
Theory in ufology
Ufologists who believe that UFOs are flying objects piloted by aliens support the zoo's hypothesis, believing it to support their theory. However, this hypothesis says on the contrary that no manifestation of extraterrestrial visitors should be perceived by Terrans, which would imply that, if UFOs are indeed extraterrestrial vessels, then it would be false. The ufologist James Deardorff proposes the scenario of an imperfect embargo, in which certain extraterrestrials, not respecting the prohibition of access striking the Earth, would nevertheless go to it. For Stephen Webb, this explanation is so unscientific that it does not even deserve the qualifier of scenario.
For Budd Hopkins, an American ufologist who has particularly worked on accounts of abduction by extraterrestrials, the zoo hypothesis involves surveillance by extraterrestrials living within humanity.
Theory in fiction
Olaf Stapledon's sci-fi novel Creator of Stars (1937) describes an alien race that hides its existence from “pre-utopian primitives” so that they do not lose their independent spirit. It is only when they reach the level of utopian space travelers and world peace that the evolved race makes contact to help them develop.
Writer Arthur C. Clarke said he was heavily influenced by Stapledon. In his science fiction short story The Sentinel (1948), geologists discover on the Moon an alien artefact responsible for signaling to an unknown species that intelligent life has developed on Earth. The short story served as the basis for 2001, A Space Odyssey, a film released in 1968 and presenting the beginnings of John A. Ball's theory. Despite a notable difference - the film features a contact that took place in prehistoric times to make humanity evolve - a device, the "second monolith", makes it possible to warn an extraterrestrial civilization that the human species has acquired a level technological sufficient to reach the Moon and thus establish a first contact.
In the Star Trek universe, galactic quarantine is governed by the United Federation of Planets via the Prime Directive which states "No identification of oneself or the mission." No interference with the social development of said planet. No reference to space or that there are other worlds and other civilizations ”. The concept is defined in March 1968 in the episode Bread and games.
In the animated series Once Upon a Time ... Space (1981), galactic quarantine is applied to less evolved civilizations by the "Omega Confederation", which brings together Earthlings and extraterrestrials. At the end of the series, Omega and the other civilizations learn that they themselves are the subject of some 40 from super-evolved species.
In the universe of the cycle of Culture, Iain M. Banks defines eleven levels of development, from the creation of tools (level 0) to “sublimation” (level 10), a kind of multidimensional Nirvana, including bronze age, industry, nuclear fission, the conquest of space, etc. One of the missions that the "Contact" section of Culture has for itself is to determine if civilizations are mature enough to be contacted. A rule is that we never provide a civilization with technologies that exceed by one unit its level of development. In the short story The Essence of Art, it is planet Earth that members of the Culture observe in order to decide if it is relevant to come into contact with it.
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