Post by Andrei Tchentchik on Sept 4, 2020 17:06:13 GMT 2
(.#514).- The US plan if a destructive asteroid threatens to crash on Earth.
The US battle plan if a destructive asteroid threatens to crash into Earth.
09/01/2017
By Grégory Rozières
Archives
The US government has developed 7 "strategic objectives" to respond to an "Armageddon" scenario.
NASA
The U.S. government is thinking about what to do when faced with a destructive asteroid.
ESPACE - Who will be our Bruce Willis in the event of Armageddon? Don't get carried away, the risks that an asteroid large enough to destroy the human species will crash on Earth are less than 0.01% for the next 100 years. However, they are not zero. And above all, if the gigantic objects which pass close to the Earth are almost all known, those of smaller size are much more discreet.
Thus, only 30% of objects of 140 meters and more are listed, according to NASA. We are talking here about asteroids whose orbit brings them very close to Earth. For those 30 meters, we go to 1%. Are you worried? You are not alone. In fact, the White House itself commissioned a report on the subject.
Released in December, it takes stock of our current knowledge of the asteroid threat and discusses seven "strategic objectives" so that the United States is ready in the event that a large meteorite threatens to crash into Earth. On the menu: better prevent and see the risks coming, of course. But the report also specifies what to do in the event of a potential collision, or even an inevitable impact.
Poorly known asteroids
It must be said that even if the risks are quite low, they are cold in the back. Thus, specifies the report, the famous asteroids of more than 140 meters, if they came to touch the Earth, would have a force equivalent to at least 60 million tons of TNT, more than any atomic bomb ever tested.
At least. Because the nuisance capacity of such a body also varies according to its composition, its speed, its shape or even its porosity.
It is precisely on these asteroids from 100 m to 1 km that the American government wants to focus. In the graph below, the yellow triangle is particularly targeted by the report. The red line is the estimated number of asteroids. The vertical green bars, the number of asteroids that we actually discovered, according to their size (from 10 m to 25 km). The background colors indicate what would be the impact radius of an asteroid of this type crashing (none, city, region, continent, worldwide).
WHITE HOUSE
A large part of the United States' strategy to deal with this risk consists above all in understanding it better. Because, even if there is much less chance of such an event occurring, compared to an earthquake or a hurricane, for example, it is at least possible here to predict such an event.
Diversion operation
One of the points raised by the report envisages the possibility of diverting from its route an asteroid. The White House believes that it would be necessary to have the possibility of sending, very quickly, a probe on a detected asteroid to analyze it in detail and prepare an appropriate response. This is what NASA is already trying to do, with for example the launch of the Osiris Rex probe last September, towards a well-known asteroid, but with a hazardous trajectory.
The authors also urge to continue research to give the United States the ability to react quickly, while testing the theory in the real world. A mission to test the feasibility of such a process, co-funded by American and European space agencies, should also take place in 2020.
The report also considers that it is necessary to direct research towards new concepts making it possible to divert the asteroids, in particular on the maneuvers of the probes when they arrive near the asteroid. Experts believe that artificial intelligence should be placed on board vessels to optimally manage the interception of the asteroid.
The little guide to survival in case of impact
The White House also evokes the worst-case scenario: that of an impact. In addition, a group dedicated to this issue, managed by NASA and the government agency for emergency situations, was set up in May 2016.
If an asteroid were to collide with the Earth, the report obviously recommends a great communication between the different American agencies, but also with the other countries and with the public. In particular, institutions and the government will have to be careful to communicate only "information verified and validated by the data". The authors also believe that it will be necessary to educate the public about the causes and consequences of such an event.
Finally, one of the seven key points in the report focuses on the next day. If the report mentions reactions which should be similar to those put in place in the case of a hurricane, there will be specificities. Already, everything will depend on the location of the impact. An asteroid falling in the middle of the ocean, near a coast or inland will not have the same impact.
"Earthquakes and tsunamis are one of the possible consequences of a significant impact," said the report. In this case, the damage will extend far beyond the place of impact. The government's response will be far different from a "simple" hurricane.
The report also believes that international cooperation will be necessary for the affected regions to recover from such an event. Hopefully this plan will never need to be implemented.
F I N .
The US battle plan if a destructive asteroid threatens to crash into Earth.
09/01/2017
By Grégory Rozières
Archives
The US government has developed 7 "strategic objectives" to respond to an "Armageddon" scenario.
NASA
The U.S. government is thinking about what to do when faced with a destructive asteroid.
ESPACE - Who will be our Bruce Willis in the event of Armageddon? Don't get carried away, the risks that an asteroid large enough to destroy the human species will crash on Earth are less than 0.01% for the next 100 years. However, they are not zero. And above all, if the gigantic objects which pass close to the Earth are almost all known, those of smaller size are much more discreet.
Thus, only 30% of objects of 140 meters and more are listed, according to NASA. We are talking here about asteroids whose orbit brings them very close to Earth. For those 30 meters, we go to 1%. Are you worried? You are not alone. In fact, the White House itself commissioned a report on the subject.
Released in December, it takes stock of our current knowledge of the asteroid threat and discusses seven "strategic objectives" so that the United States is ready in the event that a large meteorite threatens to crash into Earth. On the menu: better prevent and see the risks coming, of course. But the report also specifies what to do in the event of a potential collision, or even an inevitable impact.
Poorly known asteroids
It must be said that even if the risks are quite low, they are cold in the back. Thus, specifies the report, the famous asteroids of more than 140 meters, if they came to touch the Earth, would have a force equivalent to at least 60 million tons of TNT, more than any atomic bomb ever tested.
At least. Because the nuisance capacity of such a body also varies according to its composition, its speed, its shape or even its porosity.
It is precisely on these asteroids from 100 m to 1 km that the American government wants to focus. In the graph below, the yellow triangle is particularly targeted by the report. The red line is the estimated number of asteroids. The vertical green bars, the number of asteroids that we actually discovered, according to their size (from 10 m to 25 km). The background colors indicate what would be the impact radius of an asteroid of this type crashing (none, city, region, continent, worldwide).
WHITE HOUSE
A large part of the United States' strategy to deal with this risk consists above all in understanding it better. Because, even if there is much less chance of such an event occurring, compared to an earthquake or a hurricane, for example, it is at least possible here to predict such an event.
Diversion operation
One of the points raised by the report envisages the possibility of diverting from its route an asteroid. The White House believes that it would be necessary to have the possibility of sending, very quickly, a probe on a detected asteroid to analyze it in detail and prepare an appropriate response. This is what NASA is already trying to do, with for example the launch of the Osiris Rex probe last September, towards a well-known asteroid, but with a hazardous trajectory.
The authors also urge to continue research to give the United States the ability to react quickly, while testing the theory in the real world. A mission to test the feasibility of such a process, co-funded by American and European space agencies, should also take place in 2020.
The report also considers that it is necessary to direct research towards new concepts making it possible to divert the asteroids, in particular on the maneuvers of the probes when they arrive near the asteroid. Experts believe that artificial intelligence should be placed on board vessels to optimally manage the interception of the asteroid.
The little guide to survival in case of impact
The White House also evokes the worst-case scenario: that of an impact. In addition, a group dedicated to this issue, managed by NASA and the government agency for emergency situations, was set up in May 2016.
If an asteroid were to collide with the Earth, the report obviously recommends a great communication between the different American agencies, but also with the other countries and with the public. In particular, institutions and the government will have to be careful to communicate only "information verified and validated by the data". The authors also believe that it will be necessary to educate the public about the causes and consequences of such an event.
Finally, one of the seven key points in the report focuses on the next day. If the report mentions reactions which should be similar to those put in place in the case of a hurricane, there will be specificities. Already, everything will depend on the location of the impact. An asteroid falling in the middle of the ocean, near a coast or inland will not have the same impact.
"Earthquakes and tsunamis are one of the possible consequences of a significant impact," said the report. In this case, the damage will extend far beyond the place of impact. The government's response will be far different from a "simple" hurricane.
The report also believes that international cooperation will be necessary for the affected regions to recover from such an event. Hopefully this plan will never need to be implemented.
F I N .
