Post by Andrei Tchentchik on Mar 2, 2020 18:17:55 GMT 2
(.#A.054).- Australia - Forest fires, a predictable disaster. 16 Jan. 2020.
Australia - Forest fires, a predictable disaster.
Photo: Saeed Khan Agence France-Presse
A mega-fire was brought under control at the start of the week, but 150 homes continue to devastate the continent.
Stéphane Baillargeon
January 16, 2020
Having played the Cassandras doesn't amuse him at all. University of Melbourne professor Ross Garnaut says it is no coincidence that he was right when he predicted the disasters that are now happening in Australia 12 years ago in an official report.
The rational projection warned that without concrete action to combat climate change, the country would experience a wider bush fire season, starting earlier, ending later, with more devastating intensity. The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008-2010) even predicted that this major catastrophic shift would begin in 2020.
"I don't describe myself as a prophet of doom," said the economist, joined in Australia. I am not a soothsayer. All I did in my report was relay what the best scientists observed. "
The professor received the commission for impact studies from the opposition leader of the central government and of the states and territories. The chairman of the commission took it upon himself to commission a chapter on bush fires, a recurring problem in the country in spring and summer.
Professor Garnaut has managed companies and published around fifty books. Her research focuses on economic policies and international relations.
"I am very sad about the tragedy unfolding before our eyes," he says. I have friends in many of the disaster areas destroyed by the fires. Some of the most beautiful sites in our country are destroyed, forests, mountains. Australia suffers a tragedy which reaches gigantic proportions. "
He also admits to having had no more influence over public decisions. For two years, from 2012 to 2014, the policies adopted by the Australian state went in the direction of the fight, for example with a carbon tax, as in British Columbia. Emissions fell 8% a year "without impacting the economy," said the professor. A new government, led by Liberal Tony Abbot, then changed course by abolishing the tax, "denying the conclusions of science," says Garnaut.
I do not describe myself as a prophet of doom. I am not a soothsayer. All I did in my report was relay what the best scientists observed.
- Ross Garnaut
He links this change to two non-exclusive forces. The first is media. Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. empire controls the majority of Australian media and defends climate-skeptical editorial lines. James Murdoch, son of the founder, himself has just denounced in turn this relentless denial.
The other influence comes from the extractive industry. Australia remains the world's largest exporter of coal and liquefied gas, and its "very powerful" industries provide financial support to conservative political parties.
"This is a major cause of the orientation of certain policies," said the professor. But Australia remains a democracy. When public opinion overturns, becomes overwhelming, it can outweigh the influence of money. I hope we see such a movement taking shape now. "
Desolation
The university oracle thinks that the developing tragedy can only "change the debate". The fires are so intense that their smoke has been spotted in Chile. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced. A mega-fire was brought under control at the start of the week, but 150 homes continue to devastate the continent. Kangaroo Island now looks like the scary desolation of the Moon. It was home to 46,000 koalas last year. There may be 9000 left.
"I'm sorry it had to get there to wake up. But it’s clear that we’re at a turning point, ”said the Australian.
In a New York Times column titled "Australia shows us the way to hell", Paul Krugman, another famous economist, wrote last week that if these fires do not serve as a warning to humanity, nothing will do it.
"Paul Krugman is a friend of mine and I respect his work," said the Melbourne academic. My own positions are less dramatic than hers. I would say that these lights are one of the warnings to the world. "
Isn't the hell path clear and inevitable? “I do not predict that we are doomed. I don't want to think that we're going straight to hell. Other solutions exist. We can still avoid the worst. We cannot avoid the bad results, but we can avoid the worst outcomes. We cannot escape purgatory, but we can escape hell. "
The smoky future
It remains to be seen how. "Positions and actions that seemed impossible just three months ago are now possible," said the pragmatic analyst who has just published a new book called Super Power. Australia’s Low-Carbon Opportunity (La Trobe University Press).
He developed the thesis that his country would be richer if it reduced its emissions faster. It shows that renewable energies can now cost less to produce and store than fossil energy and recalls that the great desert country lacks neither sun nor wind.
In short, if ten years ago, the conclusion of the Garnaut report established that Australia would lose more by not changing, the new approach affirms that the country will be richer and will create more jobs by changing quickly to the model of a zero carbon economy.
Will he be heard this time? Thousands of scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also keep sounding the alarm, giving warnings, playing the Cassandras.
In closing, even if playing the Cassandras does not amuse him, Ross Garnaut agrees to project himself again into the future to try to see what is taking shape for the next decades.
"What do I see for 2030? Unfortunately and very sadly, the bush fires will get worse, not every year, but on average. The situation will therefore not improve and it will be an additional tragedy. We must now resolve to better manage these new living conditions, but this management will be difficult and painful. And if Australia is part of the global fight against climate change, I hope that in 20 years the situation will have improved. "
F I N .
Australia - Forest fires, a predictable disaster.
Photo: Saeed Khan Agence France-Presse
A mega-fire was brought under control at the start of the week, but 150 homes continue to devastate the continent.
Stéphane Baillargeon
January 16, 2020
Having played the Cassandras doesn't amuse him at all. University of Melbourne professor Ross Garnaut says it is no coincidence that he was right when he predicted the disasters that are now happening in Australia 12 years ago in an official report.
The rational projection warned that without concrete action to combat climate change, the country would experience a wider bush fire season, starting earlier, ending later, with more devastating intensity. The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008-2010) even predicted that this major catastrophic shift would begin in 2020.
"I don't describe myself as a prophet of doom," said the economist, joined in Australia. I am not a soothsayer. All I did in my report was relay what the best scientists observed. "
The professor received the commission for impact studies from the opposition leader of the central government and of the states and territories. The chairman of the commission took it upon himself to commission a chapter on bush fires, a recurring problem in the country in spring and summer.
Professor Garnaut has managed companies and published around fifty books. Her research focuses on economic policies and international relations.
"I am very sad about the tragedy unfolding before our eyes," he says. I have friends in many of the disaster areas destroyed by the fires. Some of the most beautiful sites in our country are destroyed, forests, mountains. Australia suffers a tragedy which reaches gigantic proportions. "
He also admits to having had no more influence over public decisions. For two years, from 2012 to 2014, the policies adopted by the Australian state went in the direction of the fight, for example with a carbon tax, as in British Columbia. Emissions fell 8% a year "without impacting the economy," said the professor. A new government, led by Liberal Tony Abbot, then changed course by abolishing the tax, "denying the conclusions of science," says Garnaut.
I do not describe myself as a prophet of doom. I am not a soothsayer. All I did in my report was relay what the best scientists observed.
- Ross Garnaut
He links this change to two non-exclusive forces. The first is media. Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. empire controls the majority of Australian media and defends climate-skeptical editorial lines. James Murdoch, son of the founder, himself has just denounced in turn this relentless denial.
The other influence comes from the extractive industry. Australia remains the world's largest exporter of coal and liquefied gas, and its "very powerful" industries provide financial support to conservative political parties.
"This is a major cause of the orientation of certain policies," said the professor. But Australia remains a democracy. When public opinion overturns, becomes overwhelming, it can outweigh the influence of money. I hope we see such a movement taking shape now. "
Desolation
The university oracle thinks that the developing tragedy can only "change the debate". The fires are so intense that their smoke has been spotted in Chile. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced. A mega-fire was brought under control at the start of the week, but 150 homes continue to devastate the continent. Kangaroo Island now looks like the scary desolation of the Moon. It was home to 46,000 koalas last year. There may be 9000 left.
"I'm sorry it had to get there to wake up. But it’s clear that we’re at a turning point, ”said the Australian.
In a New York Times column titled "Australia shows us the way to hell", Paul Krugman, another famous economist, wrote last week that if these fires do not serve as a warning to humanity, nothing will do it.
"Paul Krugman is a friend of mine and I respect his work," said the Melbourne academic. My own positions are less dramatic than hers. I would say that these lights are one of the warnings to the world. "
Isn't the hell path clear and inevitable? “I do not predict that we are doomed. I don't want to think that we're going straight to hell. Other solutions exist. We can still avoid the worst. We cannot avoid the bad results, but we can avoid the worst outcomes. We cannot escape purgatory, but we can escape hell. "
The smoky future
It remains to be seen how. "Positions and actions that seemed impossible just three months ago are now possible," said the pragmatic analyst who has just published a new book called Super Power. Australia’s Low-Carbon Opportunity (La Trobe University Press).
He developed the thesis that his country would be richer if it reduced its emissions faster. It shows that renewable energies can now cost less to produce and store than fossil energy and recalls that the great desert country lacks neither sun nor wind.
In short, if ten years ago, the conclusion of the Garnaut report established that Australia would lose more by not changing, the new approach affirms that the country will be richer and will create more jobs by changing quickly to the model of a zero carbon economy.
Will he be heard this time? Thousands of scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also keep sounding the alarm, giving warnings, playing the Cassandras.
In closing, even if playing the Cassandras does not amuse him, Ross Garnaut agrees to project himself again into the future to try to see what is taking shape for the next decades.
"What do I see for 2030? Unfortunately and very sadly, the bush fires will get worse, not every year, but on average. The situation will therefore not improve and it will be an additional tragedy. We must now resolve to better manage these new living conditions, but this management will be difficult and painful. And if Australia is part of the global fight against climate change, I hope that in 20 years the situation will have improved. "
F I N .
